Bihar Assembly Elections: NDA’s Strategy from Seat Sharing to Nitish Kumar’s Health

Preparations for the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections are underway, with discussions on seat allocation within the NDA coalition gaining momentum. Sources suggest that the seat distribution will follow a similar formula to the Lok Sabha elections. Negotiations are ongoing from Patna to Delhi. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP contested 17 seats, JDU 16, LJP 5, and HAM and Rashtriya Lok Morcha one each. The NDA is also factoring in Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health in its electoral strategy. The seat-sharing arrangement will be finalized towards the end to avoid complications. Furthermore, seats lost in the last two consecutive elections might be exchanged, potentially giving them to another ally to boost chances of victory. In terms of seat distribution, the JDU might contest one or two more seats than the BJP in the 243-member assembly. It is expected that JDU will contest 102-103 seats, and BJP 101-102. The remaining approximately 40 seats would be allocated to the Lok Janshakti Party, Hindustan Awam Morcha, and Rashtriya Lok Morcha, with LJP potentially receiving the largest share (25-28 seats) due to its five MPs. HAM could get 6-7 seats and Rashtriya Lok Morcha 4-5 seats. The seat distribution will take into account caste equations. If a district has five assembly seats, the coalition aims to ensure representation from all castes among the candidates. The NDA’s strategy includes seat-by-seat planning for victory, and identifying potential defectors from both the NDA and the opposition alliance. The NDA is assessing how the opposition’s focus on Nitish Kumar’s health may backfire on them, potentially garnering sympathy for the NDA. This isn’t the first time that the seat-sharing has been a point of discussion, the BJP and JDU have contested together before. In the 2010 Assembly elections, JDU contested 141 seats and BJP 102. Nitish Kumar had previously left the NDA before the 2015 elections. In 2020, Nitish once again joined hands with the BJP, with JDU contesting 115 seats and BJP 110.