The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecast for India upwards, projecting a 6.6% expansion for 2025. This represents an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates, primarily driven by India’s robust economic performance in the initial quarter of 2025. The IMF’s latest Global Economic Outlook report highlights that this strong domestic growth is successfully counteracting the impact of increased US tariffs on Indian imports.
While the outlook for 2026 sees a slight moderation to 6.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from earlier predictions, the overall sentiment remains positive. India’s economy demonstrated remarkable resilience, growing by an impressive 7.8% in the April-July quarter, significantly exceeding expectations. This sustained growth trajectory has garnered international recognition, with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva praising India’s ‘impressive’ economic journey and its bold policy and tax reforms, particularly citing the success of digital identity initiatives.
This upward revision by the IMF aligns with similar positive assessments from other international financial institutions, such as the World Bank, which recently raised its growth projection for India. Globally, the IMF anticipates a more modest economic growth of 3.2% this year. Despite concerns about trade tensions, the IMF suggests that the impact of tariffs has been less severe than initially feared, due to trade agreements, exemptions, and the agility of businesses in adapting supply chains. However, a note of caution persists, with the IMF warning that ongoing tariff impacts continue to dampen global growth prospects, including in the United States.