The future of Nitish Kumar as Bihar’s Chief Minister hangs in the balance, with the crucial election results on November 14 poised to deliver the answer. Following the legislative party’s decision on the next CM, as indicated by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, speculation is rife about the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) potentially seeking the top post if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secures a victory. However, political analysts suggest this scenario is improbable, citing significant challenges for the BJP in sidelining its long-term ally.
The JD(U) and RJD are locked in direct contests across 71 key constituencies. Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) is contesting 101 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is fielding candidates in 96. A substantial 59 of these are direct face-offs between the JD(U) and RJD, escalating to 71 when Left parties are included. These seats are seen as critical as they are less likely to align with the BJP’s agenda. Historical political strategies in Bihar have often focused on direct contests to limit the BJP’s influence.
In the 2020 elections, the RJD emerged victorious in 48 out of the 71 direct contests against the JD(U), demonstrating a formidable strike rate. The Mahagathbandhan narrowly missed a majority, falling short by 12 seats. The JD(U) secured only 21 of these 71 seats, indicating a lower strike rate. The presence of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha as independent forces in 2020 led to JD(U) losses on 13 of these seats. With both leaders now part of the NDA, their realignment is expected to benefit the JD(U) significantly.
The inclusion of Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha within the NDA fold is anticipated to consolidate Dalit and Koeri voter support, potentially boosting the JD(U)’s seat count. In 2020, Chirag Paswan’s independent campaign impacted the NDA across 42 seats, with the JD(U) losing 36. Upendra Kushwaha’s separate candidacy cost the JD(U) another five seats. Their current alignment with the NDA could therefore reclaim these lost territories.
Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is contesting 29 seats, a move reportedly influenced by BJP’s strategic seat allocation. Of these, the NDA had lost 26 seats in 2020, with 13 having remained unwon by the NDA for over a decade. Despite these dynamics, expert analysis indicates a low likelihood of the BJP successfully sidelining Nitish Kumar. Should such an attempt be made, Nitish Kumar might explore an alliance with the RJD.