The 2025 Bihar Assembly Election results have dealt a significant setback to Tejashwi Yadav and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Early trends by November 14th showed the NDA, led by the BJP and JD(U), securing a commanding lead on over 185 seats. In stark contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, was projected to win only around 54 seats. This decisive defeat indicates a rejection of the alliance’s campaign and its core messaging by the electorate. Even Tejashwi Yadav faced an uphill battle in his own constituency, trailing in initial counts.
The Mahagathbandhan’s downfall can be attributed to several critical strategic missteps:
**Over-Reliance on Yadav Candidates:** The RJD nominated 52 Yadav candidates, a substantial increase and representing 36% of their total nominees. This strategy, intended to consolidate the Yadav vote bank, inadvertently reinforced a ‘casteist’ image and evoked memories of ‘Yadav Raj,’ alienating crucial non-Yadav communities like upper castes and EBCs who gravitated towards the NDA. The BJP effectively countered this narrative with a message of an alternative to ‘RJD’s Yadav Raj.’
**Undermining Alliance Partners:** Tejashwi Yadav’s failure to foster equitable relationships with coalition partners like the Congress and Left parties led to internal discord and weakened campaign unity. An RJD-centric approach, evident in seat-sharing disputes and branding the manifesto as ‘Tejashwi’s Pledge,’ marginalized allies. This lack of cohesion prevented effective vote transfer and presented the NDA as a more unified force.
**Vague Grand Promises:** The campaign’s ambitious promises, including government jobs for every household and pension schemes, lacked concrete execution plans. The absence of a credible blueprint for funding and implementation eroded voter trust, leaving promises perceived as hollow.
**’Muslim-First’ Narrative Backlash:** The Mahagathbandhan’s perceived leanings towards appeasing Muslim voters, amplified by opposition narratives, triggered a significant backlash. While consolidating Muslim votes in some areas, this narrative alienated other sections and was exploited by the BJP, particularly by re-circulating old speeches critical of the Waqf Bill.
**Conflicted Handling of Lalu’s Legacy:** Tejashwi’s attempt to balance his father Lalu Prasad Yadav’s social justice legacy with a desire to shed the ‘Jungle Raj’ image proved counterproductive. Minimizing Lalu’s presence on posters while embracing his ideology created a dual narrative that the NDA effectively attacked, framing it as an attempt to hide past ‘sins’ rather than a generational shift.