With Sheikh Hasina toppled, Bangladesh heads to polls on February 12, 2026. Amid party infighting, opinion polls spotlight BNP’s dominance over Jamaat-e-Islami. A recent survey by Eminence Associates flips the script: BNP at 70%, Jamaat down to 19%, fueled by nostalgia for Khaleda Zia.
Tarique Rahman’s homecoming after 17 years injects fresh vigor into BNP. The poll, conducted December 20 to January 1, gives NCP only 2.9%. BNP benefits from sympathy post-Zia’s passing, Rahman’s campaign push, and backlash against post-Hasina crime wave pinned on Jamaat extremists.
Officials from Intelligence Bureau note public fears of ISI-controlled Jamaat imposing religious rule, rejecting Iran’s model for secular progress. Ex-Awami League voters are shifting: 60% to BNP, 25% to Jamaat, as their party faces a boycott and violence against supporters.
BNP enjoys 71% women’s support, strong in Rajshahi and Chittagong (70%). 77% predict BNP win. India prefers BNP stability; Modi’s message via Jaishankar underscores ties. But warnings persist: recent Hindu murders signal rising terror, with ISI-Jamaat plotting poll delays via chaos.
Over 18 days, six Hindus killed; two in last 24 hours. Agencies predict escalation pre-election, urging border alerts against cross-border militancy.