Tensions are skyrocketing in Bangladesh ahead of the February 12 parliamentary elections and simultaneous referendum. Indian spy agencies are sounding the alarm over rising criminality and political clashes, predicting severe violence if radical forces feel cornered.
The dramatic fall of Sheikh Hasina’s regime last year was marred by bloodshed, with Jamaat-e-Islami emerging as a key player under ISI patronage. Intel briefs warn that Jamaat’s all-out bid for power could collapse into street-level extremism if victory slips away, plunging the nation into turmoil.
BNP faces off directly against Jamaat in this high-stakes battle. A BNP win points to Pakistani meddling, especially after Yunus’s administration eased restrictions on Pakistani travel, business, and weaponry. Islamabad dreads a pro-India shift in Dhaka.
While Tarique Rahman’s homecoming offers some reassurance of stable India ties under BNP, the party’s history—strained relations under Khaleda Zia—breeds caution. They’ll probably play both sides, appeasing Pakistan too.
Jamaat in power would be ISI’s marionette, blindly following orders. Pakistan’s stake is clear: control via Jamaat. Yunus’s potential presidency, hashed out in secret huddles with ISI and Jamaat brass, comes with quid pro quo concessions.
ISI has ramped up operations since Hasina’s exit, thanks to Jamaat’s facilitation. Yunus kickstarted this by unbanning the outfit and freeing terrorists—strategic steps to engineer chaos and bolster Jamaat’s street power.
Surveys favor BNP over Jamaat currently, setting the stage for poll-day riots if trends persist. Delaying elections to prolong Yunus’s rule is the game plan. The Election Commission, pushing for calm, prohibits pro-‘yes’ referendum campaigning by officials to preserve integrity.
A ‘yes’ vote locks in the July Charter’s 84 amendments, overhauling governance, courts, voting systems, and identity—swapping ‘Bengali’ for ‘Bangladeshi.’ With violence risks peaking, India has placed its borders on maximum vigilance, expecting infiltrations and minority attacks in border regions. Enhanced patrols aim to seal vulnerabilities.