China’s multi-billion-dollar CPEC project faces unprecedented jeopardy as Pakistan spirals into deeper political and security disarray. According to a detailed analysis, Beijing’s officials struggling to access Islamabad safely could force a major reassessment of commitments. Each escalating challenge in the capital chips away at CPEC’s viability, eroding confidence in China’s vast regional stakes.
An ISPI report from Italy paints a grim picture: China’s grand plans for economic dominance in Afghanistan and Pakistan, securing prosperous zones along its borders, are under severe strain from unfolding events. The October 2025 border clashes between Pakistan and Afghan Taliban marked a flashpoint, following years of fraying ties post-2021 Taliban takeover in Kabul.
A decade after pledging $62 billion, China watches nervously as Pakistan battles rising extremism at home and belligerent neighbors abroad. These pressures amplify risks to Beijing’s strategic lifeline.
At CPEC’s core lies access to the Arabian Sea via infrastructure networks, spotlighting Balochistan’s Gwadar Port. But persistent unrest is thwarting profitability, halting projects and breeding uncertainty.
BLA militants in Balochistan have repeatedly struck at CPEC assets, hampering Gwadar expansion. By late 2024, threats were so acute that Gwadar’s new airport opened remotely, bypassing physical presence of dignitaries.
Compounding this, TTP operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa target both Pakistani troops and Chinese ventures with impunity. The report signals that without stability, China’s investments risk evaporation, reshaping Belt and Road dynamics in South Asia.