Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to launch the high-stakes Bihar election campaign for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on October 24, with initial rallies in Samastipur and Begusarai. These locations are strategically chosen to gauge the effectiveness of PM Modi’s influence in the state’s political arena and to see if his presence can help the NDA regain lost ground.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a key NDA constituent, relies on PM Modi’s campaigning to mobilize support, a strategy proven in past elections. In 2020, he held 12 rallies, a decrease from 26 in 2015. Insiders suggest a similar approach of 10 to 12 carefully selected rallies for the upcoming polls.
Examining the data reveals that PM Modi’s campaign significantly aided the NDA in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, contributing to their victory with a 61 percent strike rate. The alliance then comprised the BJP, Janata Dal (United) under Nitish Kumar, Vikassheel Insaan Party, and Hindustani Awam Morcha. Modi’s 12 rallies covered 110 constituencies, resulting in 67 NDA wins.
However, the impact was not uniform across all regions. Areas like Sasaram and Patna saw NDA losses despite Modi’s presence. Similarly, Chhapra showed mixed results. Yet, rallies in Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, West Champaran, and East Champaran yielded higher success rates, with the NDA winning 28 out of 39 covered seats. Further successes were noted in Darbhanga, Araria, and Saharsa, where 17 out of 20 covered seats went to the NDA.
Bihar’s electoral history also remembers 2015, when Modi’s rallies, despite large turnouts, failed to translate into significant votes. This was a period when Nitish Kumar was allied with the opposition. In that election, Modi addressed 26 rallies covering 191 constituencies, but the NDA secured only 52 seats, a 27 percent strike rate. Several districts reported no NDA wins.
As Bihar braces for the 2025 elections, the Modi-Nitish partnership is once again central. The BJP chief confirmed the Prime Minister’s extensive campaign schedule, including early rallies in Samastipur and Begusarai, followed by Muzaffarpur and Chhapra. Political analysts emphasize that Modi’s success in Bihar is amplified when he is allied with Nitish Kumar, contrasting the 2015 defeat with the 2020 victory.
The BJP has learned from experiences in other states to avoid over-reliance on a single leader, deploying PM Modi strategically. With campaigning set to intensify, the crucial question remains whether the combined appeal of Modi and Nitish can effectively convert public enthusiasm into electoral success.