Ahead of the Bihar assembly elections, political parties are strategizing, focusing on caste equations and potential alliances. Discussions are ongoing regarding seat-sharing. Amidst this, speculation arose about Owaisi’s party, which won 5 seats in the 2020 assembly elections, potentially joining the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance). AIMIM expressed its willingness to align with the Mahagathbandhan to prevent the BJP and its allies from returning to power.
AIMIM state president Akhtarul Imam initiated this proposition. However, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav responded, stating no such discussions had taken place. Yet, Owaisi revealed to the media that his party’s state president had indeed sent an alliance proposal, but a response was still pending.
Owaisi mentioned that a similar attempt was made in 2020, but the proposal wasn’t accepted. Subsequently, the party secured victories in 5 seats. On Monday, Akhtarul Imam accused RJD of poaching their MLAs despite AIMIM’s support in the assembly.
Imam stated their aim to prevent the NDA from forming the government, thus they proactively offered the alliance proposal. He also hinted at exploring options for a Third Front, indicating ongoing contacts.
The prospect of a Third Front has sparked intense speculation. It’s believed AIMIM might replicate its 2020 strategy by forming a new alliance with smaller parties. In 2020, Owaisi’s party formed the Grand Democratic Secular Front with Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, Mayawati’s BSP, Devendra Prasad Yadav’s SJD(D), Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, and Sanjay Singh Chauhan’s Janvadi Party (Socialist).
Akhtarul Imam is reportedly in talks with smaller parties. The primary concern is who will suffer the most if AIMIM forms a Third Front. The answer points to RJD and Congress.
RJD’s political base in Bihar is rooted in the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) equation. Owaisi could directly impact the RJD-Congress alliance in Muslim-dominated constituencies. Furthermore, the entry of BSP could threaten RJD in seats where Dalit and Muslim votes are decisive. In 2020, BSP won one seat, Chainpur, with Mohammad Zama Khan securing the victory.
With AIMIM’s 5 seats added, RJD lost 6 seats directly. Although most MLAs later defected, a close contest occurred in Bihar’s Ramgarh seat where current RJD MP Sudhakar Singh won by only 189 votes against BSP candidate Ambika Singh. In the current scenario, Upendra Kushwaha is with the NDA, and Rajbhar is also allied with the NDA.
It’s evident that BSP and AIMIM are preparing to contest all seats separately. If they form an alliance, Congress’s new Dalit politics and the RJD-Congress’s Muslim vote bank could be affected. Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew, is also involved in the BSP’s campaign in Bihar.
Owaisi is also looking beyond Muslim politics and planning to field Hindu candidates. He has announced Rana Ranjit Singh as a candidate from the Dhaka seat. If AIMIM and RJD don’t unite, Tejashwi Yadav could face setbacks in several seats. However, some believe that, considering how RJD missed forming the government by a few seats in the last election, Muslims may be hesitant to take such a risk again.
Tejashwi Yadav has been vocal on the Waqf issue for the Muslim community. He is presented as the strongest opposition face to defeat the NDA. The possibility of Muslim votes being wasted also looms in the minds of voters. Only time will tell how events unfold.