Bihar’s Assembly elections are likely to be held between October and November. Political parties are engaged in finalizing seat-sharing arrangements. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to discuss seat distribution, but the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP(RV)), led by Chirag Paswan, is posing a challenge. It is anticipated that the larger NDA partners, JD(U) and BJP, may contest on approximately 100 and 105 seats, respectively.
In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) fielded candidates in 115 seats, securing victory in 43. The BJP contested 110 seats and won 74. While there was a significant difference in the strike rates of the two parties, Nitish Kumar remained the leader of the coalition. Currently, the focus is on Chirag Paswan’s party’s strike rate, with questions arising from their seat demands. Let’s analyze LJP’s performance in Bihar Assembly elections since its inception.
Chirag Paswan’s party contested independently in the previous Assembly elections. Now, it is expected to be part of the NDA. According to reports, Chirag is demanding 40 seats, a number unlikely to be met. Sources suggest that Chirag may be offered around 20 seats, as the BJP and JD(U) aim to balance seat distribution among parties like the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi, and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) led by Upendra Kushwaha.
Chirag’s father, Ram Vilas Paswan, founded the LJP in 2000 and contested the first Assembly election in February 2005. The party focused on the Extremely Backward Class (EWS). Paswan allied with the Congress and contested against Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, fielding 178 candidates and winning 29 seats. The party received 12.62% of the vote share. Despite a strong initial performance, no coalition secured a majority. Paswan refused to support any alliance. Subsequently, President’s rule was imposed, and the Assembly was dissolved.
Elections were held again in October 2005. This time, the LJP fielded candidates in 203 seats but won only 10. The party’s vote share decreased to 11.10%. Later, in 2010, the party contested the elections in alliance with the RJD. They contested 75 seats but won only 3, with the vote share dropping to 6.74%.
In 2015, the LJP contested 42 seats under the NDA’s leadership. The party’s performance further declined, winning only 2 seats. The vote share fell to 4.83%. After a split in the party, Chirag Paswan formed a new party, LJP(RV), and contested the 2020 elections independently. He withdrew from the NDA and fielded candidates in 135 seats, securing victory in 1. However, the vote share increased compared to the previous election, with 5.66% of the votes.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, Chirag’s separation from the NDA impacted the JD(U), with the BJP’s performance being better in comparison. Political analysts noted that Chirag’s candidates ran against JD(U), causing significant losses. In 64 seats, the LJP candidates secured more votes than the winning candidates’ margin. Now, the LJP claims to have obtained over 6% of the votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, which indicates a growing support base in the state. Consequently, Chirag Paswan is demanding 40 seats.