Residents of Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) are already feeling an early chill this October, hinting at a potentially colder winter ahead. This unusual early cold snap coincides with reports of the season’s first snowfall in Bhaderwah, Jammu and Kashmir, and surrounding areas like Guldanda, Chattergalla Pass, Ashapati glacier, and Kailash peaks. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a significant probability of La Niña conditions developing during the post-monsoon season.
An IMD official confirmed that weather models show over a 50% chance of La Niña forming between October and December 2025. La Niña is scientifically known to be associated with colder winters in India. While climate change can influence weather patterns, the prevailing trend during La Niña years is a noticeable drop in temperatures compared to neutral years. This suggests that India should prepare for a winter that could be colder than average, with the later months bringing more significant drops in temperature.
La Niña, a Spanish term meaning ‘Little Girl’, is a recurring phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern. ENSO cycles, which include El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases, occur naturally at irregular intervals, typically every two to seven years. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has stated that La Niña conditions are currently present and are expected to persist through December 2025 to February 2026, with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026.
Meanwhile, the early snowfall in Jammu and Kashmir has transformed areas like Guldanda meadow into a winter wonderland, attracting tourists. However, the inclement weather has also led to disruptions, with major highways, including the Srinagar-Jammu and Mughal road, being temporarily closed due to snowfall and landslides.